So far we have focused primarily on analyzing the causes of changes in the size and composition of the population. Now let’s try to determine: what are the consequences of changes in the size and composition of the population? For many, the study of population dynamics is associated with the name of Thomas Robert Malthus, an English priest who lived from 1766 to 1834. In 1798, Malthus published a famous article entitled “An Essay on the Law of Population.” It stated that population growth was outpacing the replenishment of food supplies. This means that it will always cause damage to the environment. Malthus believed that this harm could be reduced in only two ways, which he called positive and preventive control. “Positive controls cannot really be considered positive. This includes "natural" disasters: wars, famines and diseases that cause suffering to people and help reduce population growth by increasing mortality rates. Malthus also spoke of preventive controls, such as late marriage and sexual abstinence. These would help reduce population growth by reducing its reproduction.But he had little faith that people would be able to show sufficient restraint to implement these measures.

Malthus's formula was criticized because it did not take into account technological improvements that could increase food supplies. It also condemns his lack of faith in people's ability to exercise preventive birth control. But as gloomy as Malthus's analysis is, it still seems relevant today. It is enough to consider the complex relationship between population growth and the world's basic resources (primarily food supplies) to realize the seriousness of the current situation.

Currently, there is a threat of death for all humanity. In many parts of the world, hunger has become a terrible reality. This primarily applies to underdeveloped countries, where population growth outpaces the development of technology. Malnutrition is one of the reasons for the significantly higher mortality rates in these countries, mainly among children. According to global nutrition data (collected in the early 1970s by the United Nations), half a billion people are malnourished, with 50 percent of them being children under 5 years of age who are not getting enough essential nutrients, especially protein. More than a billion people are undernourished. This means they are not getting enough calories.

It seems ironic that countries with enormous advances in technology are often also food poor. However, the world produces more than enough grain to provide all people with the calories they need. Why do so many people suffer from hunger? The main reason is improper distribution of food. In many developing countries, large numbers of people have left rural areas and taken up jobs in other sectors of the economy. These people are at risk of starvation unless they earn enough money to buy food that they no longer grow themselves (Barnett, 1980). A significant part of the harvest is exported, and what remains goes only to those who can buy food.

EFFORTS TO SOLUTION THE PROBLEM OF PROVIDING FOOD

At the end of the 60s, the most cherished dream of the hungry was the “green revolution”.

This movement was intended to help poor countries feed their citizens by growing new, high-yielding varieties of wheat and rice while using fertilizers efficiently. Per capita cereal production has increased in some countries, but new problems have also arisen. Small farmers experienced high yields, which required fertilizer and water. But many of them could not afford to purchase new agricultural equipment. They were forced out of agriculture, creating a new class of unemployed. Some poor countries suddenly had large surpluses of grain at their disposal, but no way to process, store or transport it. As a result, many countries have become less economically self-sufficient and more dependent on food imports from international firms “making deals” with giant agricultural corporations. Even in the US, the small farmer is being oppressed by a new approach to agriculture called agribusiness. In developing countries, this problem is exacerbated because people are too poor to buy food and at the same time cannot grow enough food to feed their families (Barnett, 1980).

Another approach to the problem of nutrition involves the development of virgin lands, especially areas located in the south of the Sahara in Africa and South America. But, apparently, this is due to the large expenditure of money, the need for extensive research and the development of agricultural technology. It would be possible to continue the efforts of the supporters of the “green revolution” and achieve an increase in yields on every acre of land, but the problem is the lack of water. This leads to a third choice: the supply of seafood can be increased (Heer, 1975). However, other scientists believe that we have already depleted the oceans' fish resources. They emphasize that marine food supplies are not infinite (Brown and Finesterbush, 1971).

Scientists believe that this problem needs to be solved on an international scale. As starving countries find it increasingly difficult to produce their own food and lack the money to import it, measures must be taken to encourage self-sufficiency. And developed countries must be willing to pay well for products exported from developing countries so that the latter have enough money to purchase or produce their own food (Barnett, 1980). In addition, we can reduce wasteful consumption of animal protein. It takes 6.5 pounds of grain to produce one pound of beef. Other high-quality protein sources include fish and legumes such as soybeans, peas and beans (Brown and Finesterbush, 1971; Barnett, 1980).

How is population growth regulated to reduce the need for resources? Government efforts to control birth rates have been unsuccessful. About 65 percent of the third world's population lives in countries that promote birth control. But creating the opportunity for them to have the desired number of children is only the first step towards solving the problem. They need to understand that the globe cannot provide everything necessary for an infinite number of people. This cannot be achieved by passing new laws (Keyfitz,

Many governments (and citizens) view a high population as a guarantee of strengthening their military and economic power. But hunger among the population, of course, does not contribute to prosperity. Recent efforts to teach people to plan their families have had some success, but resistance to these measures remains in many places.

POPULATION AND SOCIAL CHANGE

We already know that population and society are closely intertwined. And most importantly, the very survival of humanity may depend on population growth. But what impact does it have on the functioning of society? We have already discussed one aspect using the example of American colleges. In the 60s, when large cohorts of students entered them, the need arose to expand the faculties. These same cohorts are now flooding the labor market.

In some cases, changes in population structure may prompt immediate change in social and political institutions. For example, population growth or changes in its age, gender or ethnic composition often complicate the political process. In a small, homogeneous community, one can rely on informal political mechanisms or forms of people's participation in political life. But if the population grows rapidly and people from different backgrounds come into the picture, these informal mechanisms may become obsolete. New structures may emerge to help meet the demands of different segments of the population, such as political parties. In addition, new types of representative institutions (for example, city councils) may emerge. In short, as the size and composition of populations change, political institutions often change.

Demography is the science of population: its size, composition and changes. Demographers are primarily interested in how population trends affect social institutions such as education. To identify and predict these trends, demographers often study cohorts, or groups of people born around the same year. 2.

One of the most dramatic indicators of the world's population is its rate of growth: it has more than doubled over the past half century. The population is unevenly distributed, with more than half of the world's people living in Asia, where the greatest population growth is expected in the future. Enormous population growth is having an increasing impact on the world's supplies of food, land, energy and natural resources. 3.

The population of the United States grew very quickly because, in addition to increasing birth rates and decreasing death rates, huge numbers of people from other countries arrived in the country. 4.

The term population or simply population refers to the totality of people living within the boundaries of a particular political entity. The term may also refer to a specific geographic or economic area. Population statistics are based mainly on information about the inhabitants of individual countries. 5.

Age is one of the indicators used by demographers to classify the composition of the population. In 1870, young people made up the majority of the population of the United States, where there were relatively few older people. Currently, the proportion of young people has decreased compared to the proportion of representatives of older age groups. 6.

Demographers also analyze the numbers of men and women. In America, there is a predominance of male newborns, but this ratio gradually equalizes over the years, since, as a rule, men die at a younger age than women. Other aspects of population classification are settlement patterns, marital status and origin (place of birth, race, mother tongue and ethnicity). 7.

Fertility rate is the number of children a woman gives birth to during her lifetime. Fertility is the maximum number of children a woman can give birth to. The fertility rate is considered to be the “crude” birth rate or the annual number of newborns per 1000 people. The total fertility rate (a more precise indicator) refers to the number of births for every 1,000 women of childbearing capacity (ages 15 to 44). The overall fertility rate of a society fluctuates depending on various social and economic factors. 8.

Spengler believes that the decision to have children is determined by three main factors: 1) the values ​​and goals of the spouses; 2) the “rating system” they use to calculate the cost of money, time and energy required to raise a child; 3) the income of the married couple. Blake's data confirms the following fact: the more children in a family, the less likely they are to attend college. 9.

A “rough” estimate of the mortality rate is the number of deaths for every 1000 people. The mortality rate in a society is influenced by two factors: average life expectancy and the infant mortality rate (the number of children under 1 year of age who die in a given year for every 1,000 surviving newborns). Due to rising incomes, mortality rates are falling in developing countries and parts of Asia, Africa and Latin America. The fact that members of some social groups live longer than members of other groups is explained by three reasons: wars, material wealth, and race (among “coloreds” the mortality rate is higher than among whites). 10.

According to the theory of demographic transition, the process of population growth consists of three stages: 1) high levels of fertility and mortality of the population, maintaining its stability; 2) reducing mortality due to increased economic well-being of people, improved medical care and sanitary conditions; 3) low levels of birth and death rates of people. At the first stage, the population size is not disturbed; it increases intensively at the second stage and stabilizes again at the third. There are cases that cannot be explained by this theory, although it helps to understand many historical examples. eleven.

Migration, or the movement of population from one country to another, as well as within one country, represents the third factor in population dynamics. Immigration is the entry of people to live in a country, emigration is the departure of people from their country. Immigration has had a critical impact on the US economy and population. It became an important factor in the transformation of America from an agricultural country to a country with a predominant urban population - immigrants settled in large cities, forming a pool of cheap labor. Migration of people is influenced by economic necessity, awareness of new opportunities and the stability of ties with their native community. 12.

Over the past decade, humanity has become concerned about the environmental impacts of population growth, changes in population distribution, and unsustainable consumption and production patterns, especially in environmentally fragile ecosystems.

As populations grow and demand increases, the quest for water, food and energy, and its impact on the environment, is increasingly challenging the limits of technology and how wisely we use it, while administrative issues become increasingly important to achieve sustainable results. governance, social organization and human rights.

Concerns regarding population and the environment have evolved over time. Since the late 1940s and 1950s, environmental concerns have been almost exclusively related to the perceived negative impact of population growth on non-renewable natural resources and food production. Almost no attention has been paid to the adverse effects of population growth on the environment.

In the 1960s and 1970s, issues expanded to include by-products of production and consumption such as air and water pollution, waste disposal, pesticides and radioactive waste.

During the 1980s and 1990s, a new perspective emerged covering global environmental changes, including global warming and ozone depletion, biodiversity, deforestation, migration, and new and returning diseases.

Water resources, perhaps, is the resource that determines the limits of sustainable development. Freshwater resources are essentially constant, with the balance between the volume of human needs and the amount of water available already becoming precarious. And in this regard, not all countries are in an equal position. On average, more developed regions have significantly higher rainfall than less developed regions, and they have more efficient water management technologies. While the world's population has tripled over the past 70 years, water use has increased 6-fold. Currently, the planet uses 54% of the available annual fresh water, two-thirds of which goes to agriculture. By 2025, due to population growth alone, the above figure will reach 70%, or, if per capita consumption in all countries reaches the level of more developed countries, 90%.

Important measures to improve the quality and availability of water resources include protecting them from pollutants, restoring disturbed flow patterns to river systems, rational use of irrigation and chemicals, and stopping industrial air pollution.

Balanced use of water can be a factor that sets the boundaries for sustainable development. Water cannot be replaced by anything, and the balance between human needs and available supplies has already reached a critical point.

Water quality is closely linked to water availability, decisions about land use, industrial and agricultural production, and waste disposal. In developing countries, 90 - 95% of wastewater and 75% of industrial waste are discharged untreated into surface waters, polluting usable water resources.

Natural systems purify recycled water if it is available in sufficient quantities. When water quantity begins to decline rapidly, its quality usually declines at the same time, which is also affected by intensive land use and industrial development.

The struggle for increasingly scarce water resources increases the likelihood of international conflict (both economic and military) over water quality and distribution patterns. More than 200 river systems cross national borders. Thirteen of the largest rivers and lakes are located in 100 countries.

The future impact of global warming on water availability and hence the persistence of human settlement patterns remains unclear. As the climate warms, there may be significant changes in precipitation patterns, including the severity and timing of storms and evaporation rates.

Food. In many countries, the rate of population growth in recent years has outpaced the rate of food production. From 1985 to 1995, food production lagged behind demographic growth in 64 of the 105 developing countries surveyed, with Africa being the worst performer. Per capita food production fell in 31 of 46 African countries. Australia, Europe and North America have large surpluses of food for export and there is likely potential for expansion of food production. However, the question of the long-term sustainability of intensive farming remains unanswered.

The food production potential of many poor countries is undermined by soil degradation, chronic water shortages, poor agricultural practices and rapid population growth. Much farmland is increasingly being used to grow cash crops for export, depriving poor local people of cultivable land and food to feed.

Today, 15 crops provide 90% of the world's food consumption. Three of them - rice, wheat and maize (corn) - are staple foods for two out of every three people. Continued genetic erosion of wild strains of cereals and other crops threatens further efforts to improve the quality of staple crops. If the rate of genetic loss of plants cannot be stopped or significantly slowed, then by 2025, 60,000 plant species, or approximately a quarter of all existing plants on the planet, could be lost.

Fish stocks are also under threat. According to the FAO, 69% of commercial marine fisheries are “fully exploited, overfished, depleted or slowly recovering.” To feed the nearly 8 billion people expected to live on earth by 2025 and improve their diets, countries around the world will need to double food production and improve food distribution to prevent hunger. As available arable land shrinks, most production will come from increasing yields rather than cultivating new land. However, growing new high-yielding varieties of crops requires special fertilizers and pesticides, the use of which can upset the ecological balance and cause the emergence of new diseases and pests.

Environmental degradation, population growth, too much pressure on agriculture and poor international food distribution raise the question: will there be enough food in the future? According to the International Food Policy Research Institute, in 2020 the world's farmers will have to produce 40% more grains than in 1999. Moreover, production growth should largely be based on higher yields, and not on the development of new crops. lands.

Countries experiencing food shortages face the following challenges.

Limited areas of arable land. Increased food production must be achieved on existing agricultural land. Theoretically, the area of ​​arable land could be increased by 40%, or 2 billion hectares, but most of this undeveloped land has poor soil composition or insufficient or, conversely, excessive rainfall.

Reducing the size of family farms is one of the consequences of rapid population growth. In most developing countries, the size of small family farms has halved over the past 40 years as fields are divided into ever smaller plots by new generations of heirs.

Soil degradation. About 2 billion hectares of agricultural pastures and lands were damaged to moderate and severe degrees. This area is larger than the United States of America and Mexico combined. If the land has been heavily exploited or devoid of vegetation, it is easily eroded by wind and water - the main factors of soil degradation. Improper irrigation and drainage can render the land useless due to waterlogging and salinity. Inappropriate use of fertilizers and pesticides also plays a role in soil degradation. Soil erosion and other forms of land degradation annually take away 5-7 million hectares of agricultural land. For example, according to estimates by the Institute for Rational Soil Management, by 2025 Kazakhstan will lose almost half of its agricultural land as a result of soil erosion and degradation. Globally, land degradation threatens the livelihoods of at least 1 billion farmers and pastoralists, most of whom live in poor countries.

Lack of water and deterioration of its quality. Water used to irrigate agricultural land accounts for about 70% of all water used annually in the world to meet human needs.

Irrigation problems. Food supplies are threatened not only by water shortages, but also by ineffective irrigation methods. Although only 17% of all agricultural land is irrigated, it provides 1/3 of the world's food supply.21 - 3/43 of food. Less than half of the water intended for irrigation actually reaches agricultural fields. The rest of the water is absorbed in unlined channels, flows out of pipes or evaporates on its way to the fields.

Waste. A huge amount of food is wasted every year due to rat or insect infestations, spoilage and losses during transportation. For example, in China, approximately 25% of the harvested grain crop is wasted; most of it goes to rats and other pests. Similarly, according to the Vietnamese government, about 13-16% of rice and 20% of vegetable crops harvested in the country are wasted due to poor storage conditions and methods.

Changing of the climate. In the twentieth century, the population quadrupled, from 1.6 billion to 6.1 billion, and emissions of carbon dioxide, which traps heat in the atmosphere, increased 12-fold. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that the Earth's atmosphere will warm by 5.8 degrees Celsius over the next century, a rate unprecedented in the last 10,000 years. According to the forecasts of the “optimal” scenario developed by the group, by 2100 the level of the world's seas will rise by almost one and a half meters.

Climate change will have serious consequences, including increased severity of storms, floods and soil erosion, accelerated extinction of flora and fauna, shifts in agricultural production areas, and threats to human health due to increased water stress and the spread of tropical diseases. Such conditions will lead to increased flows of environmental refugees and international economic migration.

At the beginning of the 21st century. developing countries account for more than half of total emissions. As the per capita emissions gap narrows, population size and growth rates will become more and more important in policy debates.

Rising temperatures on the planet's surface and changes in the scale, intensity and geographic distribution of precipitation have the potential to redraw the world's map of renewable natural resources. Whether or not these climate changes affect global agricultural production, they will almost certainly alter the distribution of productivity across regions and countries, as well as within states. Numerous other studies indicate that Arctic ice and mountain glaciers around the world have shrunk substantially in size over the past few decades and continue to shrink rapidly.

A warming climate also poses a serious threat to public health. Due to the redistribution of atmospheric precipitation, the number of people living in regions experiencing extreme water shortages is increasing, which is aggravated by the problem of population growth. In addition, the geographic distribution of temperature-related tropical diseases such as malaria and dengue fever may expand.

An increase in average ambient temperature causes the formation of more intense and prolonged heat waves, which is accompanied by a deterioration in human health due to thermal exposure. As the Earth's atmosphere warms, the effects will be felt to varying degrees in all regions of the world.

Population growth, migration and vulnerable areas, deforestation and unsustainable use of water and land resources are already increasing the impact of natural disasters on individuals and communities. These factors also undermine countries' economies and long-term development prospects.

The combined effects of population growth and climate change can cause regional resource shortages, which in turn lead to the exploitation of environmentally sensitive areas such as hillsides, floodplains, coastal zones and wetlands. These conditions may also lead to an increase in the number of environmental refugees, increased international economic migration and worsening associated socio-economic problems.

Desertification. Among the states of Central Asia, Kazakhstan, affected by the process of desertification, ranks first. About 66% of its territory is subject to degradation. Foci of degradation are noted throughout the republic, which is caused by negative anthropogenic impacts against the background of adverse natural phenomena. The natural prerequisites for desertification are climate aridity; insufficient precipitation and high evaporation; periodic droughts and vulnerability of ecosystems to disturbances in the hydrothermal regime and other negative external factors, especially in the lowland part of the country. Disruption of the cycle of floods, as well as natural disasters (winters with extremely low temperatures, late spring and early autumn frosts, mudflows, landslides, floods) are also important causes of desertification.

In different regions of the country, types of desertification occur with varying degrees of intensity (from moderate to very severe). The process of desertification of productive lands under the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors is continuously progressing. This leads to the loss of agricultural areas (meadows, pastures), forests, climate aridization, a decrease in the degree of watering of territories, and loss of landscape and biological diversity. The process is accompanied by a constant deterioration in the living conditions of the population and ends with the forced movement of residents to other regions. In recent years, a new term for such population groups has appeared in the literature - “environmental refugees”).

Anthropogenic factors, those that have the most significant impact on the environment, leading to the gradual accumulation of negative environmental changes and increased processes of land degradation, are the following: overgrazing of livestock; imperfection of the farming system; subsoil development; construction of linear structures; river flow regulation; intensive logging; fires and burning.

Overgrazing is associated with overloading of pastures. About 49 million hectares of degraded pastures are registered. At the same time, the structure and species composition of the pasture changes: valuable forage species disappear, the number of weeds and poisonous plants increases. The balance between the alienation of feed and the rate of its recovery is disrupted.

Currently, very strong desertification occurs around wells and villages, and remote pastures are poorly used, which is associated with changes in ownership patterns, redistribution of land holdings, a significant decrease in the number of livestock in general and its concentration in individual farms.

Regulation of river flow is a particularly dangerous cause of desertification, threatening an environmental disaster that can give rise to environmental destabilization. At the same time, degradation of floodplain ecosystems occurs - tugai forests and the biological diversity in them, meadows are reduced, the level of groundwater recharge decreases, and general aridization occurs throughout the entire river basin.

Excessive cutting of forests, uprooting of bushes for fuel, terracing of mountain slopes during agriculture and construction, unsystematic recreation, organization of landfills around populated areas, contamination of soils and groundwater with municipal and industrial waste cause dangerous processes of land degradation and are considered as causes of local desertification.

In the destructive process, objects of the military-industrial complex played a negative role, the true scale, sources and consequences of which have not been fully identified.

Loss of arable land. About 1.5 million hectares of land with negative signs of moderate and severe degrees of dehydration have been preserved as part of arable land. Currently, the area of ​​arable land has decreased to 22.3 million hectares. Simultaneously with the withdrawal of lands with low soil quality from arable land for one reason or another, more than 4.2 million hectares of land uncomplicated by negative characteristics were transformed into other types of land.

Although all environmental problems are primarily the result of human activities, there is variation in the degree to which they are directly related to population size, growth, or distribution. For example, the spread of some types of pollution is mainly a consequence of increases in per capita production and consumption in richer countries where population growth rates have generally been low. Some types of pollution, such as emissions of chlorofluorocarbons that destroy the planet's ozone layer, have much more to do with specific technologies than with population dynamics or overall economic growth.

Even the environmental problems that characterize countries with high population growth are not always caused primarily by population growth, and stopping population growth does not always solve these problems while maintaining other social and technological factors that often also contribute to environmental degradation.

Many of today's most pressing environmental problems involve resources that are, to a greater or lesser extent, the “commons.” “Commons resources” refer to valuable natural resources that cannot or cannot be transferred effectively into private ownership. Examples of such resources include the air envelope, watercourses, complex ecological systems, large landscapes, and the electromagnetic spectrum.

Economic theory predicts, and much practical experience clearly demonstrates, that unimpeded access to such resources leads to their excessive and improper exploitation and is fraught with a deterioration in their quality. In the absence of effective social mechanisms to limit and mitigate the tendency toward overexploitation and degradation of commons resources, population growth tends to exacerbate such problems.

Population growth is rarely the only factor at play. Population growth, especially in recent decades, has occurred in parallel with widespread technical and social changes. But, population growth is generally considered the most important factor determining the growth in demand for agricultural products.

Agriculture has many negative environmental impacts that pose a serious threat to sustainable food production in some areas. The need to feed a growing population is placing increasing pressure on water resources in many areas of the world.

Globally, irrigation uses over 70 percent of fresh water taken from lakes, rivers and underground sources. Although water is often used inefficiently, the institutional arrangements required to implement effective water policies are often time-consuming and costly, and in some cases impractical. Thus, although population pressure is not the only or even the main cause of inefficient water management and water pollution, it is exacerbating the scale of environmental damage.

Air and water pollution is a major environmental threat facing developed countries and an increasing number of developing countries. High levels of CO and other greenhouse gas emissions are also associated with high levels of development. In general, such problems appear to be driven much less by population growth than by economic growth and technology. However, all things being equal, continued population growth plays a role in increasing aggregate economic demand and, therefore, the volume of production that causes environmental pollution.

So, population growth is one of the factors contributing to the emergence of many types of environmental stress. The role of a growing population is particularly evident in the fact that it is the main factor determining the need to increase food production and exorbitantly increasing the environmental load on water and forest resources, on the soil and atmosphere as a result of agricultural activities. However, as an in-depth scientific study concluded in the 1990s, population growth “is not the only factor influencing the rate of resource degradation, and in many contexts it is certainly not the most important factor.

There are many barriers to expanding food production and making better use of resources. These factors include inefficient land tenure systems, inadequate availability of credit, unrealistic agricultural prices and exchange rates, unfavorable tax policies, poor development of agricultural extension services, excessive government control and civil wars. But it is unlikely that any of these problems can be solved by addressing rapid population growth. Even for those environmental issues for which population dynamics seem to matter relatively little compared to recent trends in per capita consumption or polluting technologies, the effect of alternative population growth paths will become more important in the longer term.

The generally accepted dynamics of population growth have a twofold impact. The fact that population growth is a complex process means that what happens today will have a multiplier effect in each subsequent generation.



We see that population growth is not the same in different subsystems of the world economy. This phenomenon provides some basis for maintaining long-standing ideas about optimal population and optimal economic growth. These ideas are usually associated with the population of individual countries and regions, and, in recent decades, with the world population. This provides an impetus for economists to analyze the relationship between population growth and

Economic development.

Conceptual approaches. Several approaches to analyzing the relationship between population growth and economic development have emerged.

One of them assumes that demographic variables are an essential aspect of socio-economic development. This approach is based on the following scheme: rapid population growth reduces the growth of savings and savings, increases the growth of the labor force and makes it more difficult to use, reduces the quality of labor resources by reducing the level of spending on education and health care, weakens technical innovations, and reduces the amount of resources per person and ultimately slows down per capita GDP growth.

Historically, this approach is associated with the postulates of the English priest and economist T. Malthus (1766-1834), who contrasted two factors - population and natural resources. In his early work, he argued that population growth, if unchecked, tends to increase exponentially, while food supply tends to increase only arithmetically. Having postulated the unlimited and unchanging desire of people to reproduce, T. Malthus interpreted demographic growth as an independent variable, which is only adjusted by the action of “destructive” (wars, epidemics, famine) and “precautionary” (celibacy, etc.) social factors.

From the beginning of the 19th century. The Malthusian "trap" is often used to show that population growth creates a problem for humanity due to the lack of food, raw materials and habitat. Accordingly, the central problem for humanity is how to get out of this situation. The difference between the time of T. Malthus and the modern period is that he based his conclusions on his own country, where the limits of agricultural production were reached at that time.

Another approach is that demographic factors are a function of social and economic development. This approach, reflected at the world conference on population in 1974, corresponds to the provisions of A. Smith, who believed that an increase in population can accelerate economic development by promoting technical innovation. Wealth may lead to an increase in the number of children, but the use of their labor may cover the costs of their maintenance and upbringing. At the same time, wealthy people tend to have fewer children, while poverty is often accompanied not only by high birth rates, but also high death rates. Increasing population does not lower living standards. A. Smith showed that over time the cost of food products decreases.

This approach corresponds to the modern concept of “economies of scale”. It intensified in the 1980s and was supported by the Second Report of the US National Academy of Sciences in 1986. It recognized that the impact of population growth on economic growth is complex. Problems such as unemployment, malnutrition are caused by many factors and focusing only on reducing population growth without consistently considering other underlying causes of such phenomena may lead to misleading results. A working group of the National Academy of Sciences stated that reducing population growth is not a panacea for development, but in “most countries with a certain amount of resources, slower population growth can facilitate economic and social development.” She examined nine questions and concluded that the negative impacts on resource depletion, savings, urbanization and unemployment have been exaggerated.

Population and resources as two important variables have a relationship with each other. These relationships are very mobile, elastic, and therefore the conclusions of the analysis of these relationships may be different. Over short to medium-term periods, changes in population may be an important variable, but over longer periods, other variables will change to accommodate increases or decreases in population. Therefore, the analysis of the relationship between population and socio-economic development is very specific, although important in itself. Due to the complexity of the issue, it is difficult to accurately take into account the influence of all variables when considering this problem.

Demographic pressure and economic development. When assessing the demographic situation in the world, the impact of population growth on the economic situation in a particular country, not only the total number and growth of the population, but also its age structure - division into working-age groups, children and pensioners, or more precisely, changes in age population structure.

A general shift in the structure of the population in the last quarter of the 20th century. consisted of a slight increase in older ages (over 65 years) and a reduction in younger ages (less than 15 years). Since the reduction in the share of younger people was greater than the increase in pensioners, the share of the working-age population tended to expand. A similar trend was typical for developed countries, especially Europe. In Europe, the decline in population growth has led to the fact that the increase in the share of older people equalized the decrease in the share of young people, so the share of the population in working age has increased slightly.

Changes in the age structure of the population are reflected in the dependency ratio, or dependency ratio, which represents the ratio of the share of younger and retirement ages to the share of the working-age population (Table 13.3). The general trend of the second half of the current century was an increase, and since 1975, a decrease in this ratio from 75.2% in 1975 to 60.7% in 1995-2000, i.e. For every 100 people of working age, there were 61 people of disabled age.

The dependency ratio was considered an important indicator.

The reasoning for this was formalized in 1958. It lies in the fact that the growth of the demographic burden has unfavorable consequences, leading, in particular, to the dispersion of capital investments as a result of their movement from production sectors to social infrastructure, and a decrease in the level of savings as a result of increased household consumption.

But at least until the mid-90s, research in these areas did not clearly confirm the negative impact of the growing demographic burden on economic development. It has been found that even small changes in savings and capital efficiency make it possible to meet the educational expenditure needs of a growing population. The thesis about the movement of capital from productive to non-productive investments, as well as the direct relationship between the demographic burden and savings, found little confirmation. The impact of additional investments in the non-productive sphere at the reproduction level can only be determined at the macro level. Even if the funds used do not provide overall economic benefits, they help accelerate the demographic transition in many developing countries. In particular, higher levels of education are one of the strongest factors in reducing the population's replacement rate, although in poor countries women with low literacy levels have more children than those who are illiterate.

The apparently weak practical results of the linear approach to the impact of population growth on economic development show how complex the issue is.

The world demographic situation shows that the reason for the sharp increase in population growth is the decrease in mortality in less developed countries, although the birth rate has decreased. A sharp decrease in mortality is a temporary phenomenon; accordingly, in the long term, population growth will also decrease, which will lead to changes in the structure of the population and in the level of demographic burden. The share of working ages will increase, and the number of pre-working ages will decrease, then the share of older people will increase. A significant reduction in the dependency ratio will increase GDP per capita and the savings rate will increase as the share of the adult labor force increases.

Why is there concern in political circles about high population growth rates?

Economic and demographic growth. Typically, to determine the impact of population growth on economic development, the population growth rate and GDP per capita are compared. Evidence from recent decades shows that, with a few exceptions, higher levels of economic development are often correlated with lower population replacement rates and higher life expectancy.

As the data in table shows. 13.4, during the 80-90s, the growth rate of GDP per capita in the world increased while population growth decreased in the 90s. This trend has been observed in developing countries in general and especially in the least developed countries. At the same time, in industrialized countries, a slight decrease in population growth rates from 0.6 to 0.5 was not accompanied by an increase in per capita GDP. A similar situation was observed in the group of low-income countries. In other countries, population growth may have paralleled increases in per capita income. For a number of countries with an insufficient level of development, the problem of population growth is acute in terms of maintaining minimum needs. In the 1980s, the growth rate of GDP per capita in the poorest developing countries had negative dynamics. Therefore, in the short term, for a number of countries, population growth coincided with a deterioration in the socio-economic situation.

The socio-economic situation in the short term may be aggravated by other reasons, in particular the process of urbanization. In industrialized countries, urban population for 1950-1990. doubled to 77%, and in developing countries it quadrupled to more than 2.0 billion people, or 40% of the population. Most cities in the developing world have become centers of the most degrading poverty, with huge numbers of people living on the edge of survival. An estimated 1.2 billion people, or nearly 23% of the world's population and 60% of city dwellers, live in shacks, often made from plywood, plastic and other readily available materials. The number of households without healthy, clean water increased from 138 million in 1970 to 215 million in 1988, and without adequate sanitation - from 98 million to 840 million in the 1990s.

At the same time, it is hardly correct to draw a conclusion from the arithmetic, hackneyed proposition that if the population had not grown so quickly, the level of economic development would have increased more strongly. This ignores the fact that population growth contributes to GDP production. It stimulates capital investment and technical improvements, the discovery and development of mineral resources, and production. When the world is considered as a whole, no significant relationship is found between population growth and GMP. When developing countries are considered separately, the negative comparison is significant, especially for the period of the 70s and 80s.

The correlation between economic growth and population growth is influenced by many factors, including the general economic situation. It is possible that the debt crisis had a more serious impact than population growth on the development of the global economic system, restraining its economic growth and limiting its ability to respond to the challenge of population growth in developing countries. As noted, in the 80s in developing countries the dynamics of GDP per capita was low, but in 22 countries in 1965-1985. it developed as the birth rate decreased.

The world population is growing rapidly, but the world product is increasing faster and shows the ability of world society to develop productive forces. Population growth is not a problem if economic and social changes occur quickly enough and the necessary technological progress is achieved. But rapid population growth in recent decades has made structural change more difficult, much of it driven by poverty. This requires targeted policies by governments and the world community to increase the level of economic and social development and eliminate destabilizing gaps between industrialized and developing countries

Population growth and its environmental consequences. Overpopulation and rapid population growth are intimately linked to most aspects of the planet's current grave deterioration, including the rapid depletion of non-renewable life-sustaining sources, environmental degradation and increasing tensions in international relations. October 12, 1999, the UN officially declared the day of the 6 billionth inhabitant of the planet.

On average, the population increases by 250 thousand people per day, by 90 million per year. At the end of the millennium, the world's population will exceed 6 billion. More than 5 billion of these people will live in the developing South, which is accounting for 95 percent of the population growth. Population growth has not been observed throughout the world. After rapid growth in the 19th and early 20th centuries, the populations of industrialized countries have stabilized. In less developed regions of the world, rapid population growth began later but continues to this day. Third World Countries Are Doubling Their Population Every 30 Years Scientists believed that population growth could be stopped at 10.2 billion if urgent action was taken and necessary programs were implemented to reduce population growth.

New data raised this number to 14 billion people. But, if nothing is done, and the birth and death rates remain unchanged, then by the end of the next century the world population could reach 27 billion. Some reasons for population growth.

One of the most important reasons for such rapid population growth over the past 200 years is that the death rate has decreased much faster than the birth rate. In developing countries, there are a number of socio-economic reasons that lead women to have more children. Here children are economic assets - they provide valuable labor and do not require large expenses for their development.

In some countries, girls give birth to children when they are only 15 years old. This also leads to an increase in population. Population growth is directly related to living standards. It is greater where the standard of living is low. In countries where there is no system of pensions and benefits for the elderly, children become a source of financial support for them in old age. Therefore, families try to have more children. The growth of the population of poor countries is also due to the lack of access to preventive programs and healthcare, which leads to a high level of child mortality.

Therefore, many parents try to compensate for this with more of them. In less developed countries, there is a lack of accessible, reliable and effective contraceptives, as well as knowledge about their use. A large number of people in the world know nothing about family planning. According to the Worldwatch Institute, fewer than 30 women in developing countries have access to family planning programs.

Religious prejudices also play a major role, prohibiting the use of contraceptives and other preventive measures. In some countries, they believe that a large family is some kind of authoritative status in the community. Some people do not believe in family planning programs because they believe they are motivated by racism and other prejudices. They believe that this is the North's desire to control the South by reducing its population. In any case, the desire to reduce population growth faces a number of difficulties regarding moral, cultural, religious and other aspects.

In 1804, the world population reached the 1 billion mark. In 1927, this figure was already 2 billion, that is, after 123 years. In 1960 - 3 billion 33 years later. In 1974 - 4 billion after 14 years. In 1987 - 5 billion after 13 years. In 1999 - 6 billion after 12 years. What does population growth lead to? In connection with the growth of the planet's population, there is an increase in global consumption of natural resources.

Research conducted in this area has led to the disappointing conclusion that within a few decades, population growth will lead to unacceptably high environmental pollution and serious shortages of basic natural resources. The growth of world population is much stronger than the growth of agricultural production throughout the world. Since 1950, the urban population has increased to 2 billion people, representing more than 41 of the world's population.

Urban population growth in developing countries will accelerate and scientists predict it will reach 4 billion by 2025. A city with a population of more than 1 million people, more than 250 of these cities consume on average 625,000 tons of water, 2,000 tons of food and 9,500 tons of fuel every day. The same city daily produces more than 500,000 tons of wastewater, 2000 tons of solid waste and 950 tons of gases that pollute the atmosphere. Global population growth will and does place enormous pressure on the supply of drinking water.

Especially in developing countries, since many of them are in arid or semi-arid regions. Let's not forget that developed countries consume approximately 75 of all energy used, 79 of all commercial fuels, 85 of all products made from wood and 72 of all products made from steel. The human impact on the environment can be reduced either by reducing the population size or reducing consumption.

Ideally, environmental impacts can be reduced by regulating both population and consumption. How to reduce population growth It has been established that the planet's resources are sufficient to feed about 10 billion people. To keep the population at this level, everyone in the world needs to have access to contraception by the year 2000. Of those who will have access to it, about 75 will probably use it.

If 75 couples of reproductive age planned their family and used contraception, on average they would have 2 children in 15 years. If couples worldwide have an average of two children, then by 2050 the population will be about 9 billion, and by the end of the 21st century - 9.3 billion. In order to change something, it is necessary for every person, including you, to understand the impact of population growth on the environment and, accordingly, on the quality of life.

End of work -

This topic belongs to the section:

Biocenoses, ecological succession, environmental degradation. environment, population growth

BC is characterized by certain relationships of organisms with each other and adaptability to their environment. The biocenosis is formed by organisms of various... Communication with other organisms is a necessary condition for nutrition and reproduction.. First of all, trophic food relationships arise between organisms when some representatives of the biocenosis...

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The overall picture of the dynamics of the Earth's population over the past two thousand years turns out to be quite complex. Although, with the exception of a relatively short period in the 14th century, this number grew continuously, the rate of specific (per capita) growth was very different. Over some periods of time, for example from 400 to 1200, and from 1700 to 1960, the population showed a clear positive feedback between numbers and the rate of specific growth: higher numbers contributed to faster growth, and vice versa. However, positive feedback usually leads to destabilization and collapse of the entire system. It is not surprising that since the 1960s, the human population has established a negative feedback between size and rate of growth: as size increases, the specific rate of population growth decreases. In different groups of countries characterized by different standards of living, factors limiting fertility acted in a similar way. The only exceptions are sub-Saharan African countries. Their living conditions have recently deteriorated significantly and the average life expectancy has decreased. In the future, the human population may stabilize at one level, although long-term cyclical fluctuations are very likely.

The total number of people on Earth in November 2011 had already exceeded 7 billion. The scientific community responded to the achievement of the next “round” milestone with the appearance of a number of publications (see: The Earth’s population has reached seven billion - what’s next?, “Elements”, 09/07/2011). For the most part, researchers are trying to predict the future demographic situation: how long will population growth continue, will numbers stabilize at a certain level, or will humanity face collapse? The models proposed for this purpose are usually based on extrapolation - a continuation into the future of trends observed recently. Processes that took place in the human population in the past, as a rule, are ignored. Hence the rather ridiculous predictions, such as the “Doomsday” prediction on Friday, November 13, 2026, made by Heinz von Foerster back in 1960. On this day, according to Förster's model, the Earth's population should have reached infinity.

However, Mauricio Lima of the Center for Advanced Studies in Ecology and Biodiversity at the Pontifical Catholic University (Santiago, Chile) and Alan A. Berryman of the Department of Entomology at Washington State University (Pullman, Chile) Washington, USA) focused their attention not so much on forecasting the future, but on analyzing the past. In an article published in the magazine Oikos, they used classical methods of population ecology, commonly used by zoologists when studying natural populations of various animals, both vertebrates and invertebrates, to interpret population dynamics.

To begin, the authors looked at population dynamics over the past 2,000 years, using data published by the US Office of Statistics (for the period 1 AD to 1950) and the UN (for the period 1950–2005). From the above graph (Fig. 1) it is clear that during the first 800 years the human population remained almost at the same level. Fertility was balanced by mortality, and the specific (that is, per capita) rate of population growth was close to zero (Fig. 2).

Later, in the period 800–1200, the population began to grow, and not only the number itself increased, but also the rate of its growth. However, in 1250–1350. the growth rate slowed down, and in 1340–1400. The population also declined sharply. Reasons: severe cold and plague, which carried away in 1346–1353. the life of a third, if not half of the total population of Western Europe (see about the causative agent of the disease: Read the genome of the plague bacillus from the time of the Black Death, “Elements”, 11/08/2011). The restoration of the population, accompanied by an increase in the rate of population growth (Fig. 1 and 2), occurred already in the Renaissance: 1400–1600. Then we see a rapid increase in numbers (especially from the beginning of the 18th century to the mid-20th century). Over the past 200 years - until 1965, to be precise - populations have grown faster than would be expected from exponential growth. Since 1965–1970 The specific growth rate of the human natural population is decreasing.

Let us remind you that exponential growth described by the formula N t = N 0 e rt , where N t is the number at the end of the time period t; N 0 - number at the beginning of the time period under consideration; e- the base of natural logarithms; r is the specific growth rate of the population (its dimension: individuals/individuals × time = 1/time). A necessary and sufficient condition for exponential growth is the constant value of r. In other words, if the ratio of birth rate and death rate remains constant in a population, then the population changes its size exponentially. If the population grows faster than exponentially, then r does not remain constant, but increases. It is important to emphasize that in the human population this occurs not due to an increase in the birth rate (the childbearing potential of any woman is limited), but due to a decrease in mortality, due to the fact that an increasing number of people do not die in infancy, but live to adulthood.

To identify the relationship between population size and specific growth rate, the authors of the work under discussion constructed a so-called phase portrait (Fig. 3), plotting the logarithm of population size on one axis of the graph, and the specific rate of change in population size over a short previous period of time (20 or 5 years) on the other. . From the above figure it can be seen that the relationship between the population growth rate and population size has a rather complex form: in certain population ranges it is positive (that is, the larger the population size, the higher the rate of its specific growth), and in other ranges it is negative (the larger the size population, the lower the rate of its specific growth).

The periods of positive and negative relationships between the size and the rate of specific population growth alternated over time. A clearly expressed positive feedback was noted for the periods: from 400 to 1200 and from 1700 to 1960 (Fig. 4), negative - for the period from 1965 to 2005. The authors, in accordance with the traditions of population ecology, interpret positive feedback as “cooperation.” It is assumed that as the population grows, new technologies emerge that can provide rapid economic development, increased food production and improved living conditions. But in itself, the positive feedback between numbers and the rate of population growth is fraught with further destabilization of the situation - sooner or later it must be replaced by the formation of negative feedback.

Negative feedback between population size and rate of population growth is usually interpreted as competition (for example, for food or feeding territory). In the case of the human population, the decline in growth rate occurs almost exclusively due to a decline in specific fertility (which demographers judge by the fertility rate - the average number of children born to one woman in her lifetime). The negative feedback between size and population growth rate in the case of the human population is not associated with a decrease in food production and consumption.

The work also examines data for groups of countries. The identified recent demographic trends coincide in them, with the exception of sub-Saharan African countries. This is the only region for which a decline in average life expectancy has been noted over the past 20 years. This is primarily due to the spread of HIV infection and the decline in living standards.

The authors of the article under discussion are cautious in their forecasts. Although the recent trend corresponds to the logistic model of population growth (S-shaped growth reaching a plateau), maintaining the population at the same level will require a balance of average (per capita) resource consumption, the rate of reproduction and the rate of renewal of the limiting resource. But such a balance is difficult to achieve with limited resources and a changing climate. Most likely, long-term cyclical fluctuations will arise in the population with some delay, which have already occurred in individual societies (subpopulations) (for more details, see: